Citi Raises Stablecoin Market Forecast to $1.9 Trillion by 2030 Amid Institutional Hesitation

Citigroup has upwardly revised its stablecoin market projection to $1.9 trillion by 2030, a significant jump from its April 2025 estimate of $1.6 trillion. The bullish scenario now targets $4 trillion, fueled by regulatory clarity and payment network integration. Yet institutional adoption remains embryonic, scoring a mere 0.5 on a 10-point maturity scale.

Stablecoin issuance has surged 40% year-to-date, propelled by policy tailwinds like the GENIUS Act and infrastructure improvements from major platforms. The current supply stands at $292 billion, with monthly transaction volumes nearing $1 trillion—double last year’s pace. Three drivers underpin Citi’s outlook: deposit substitution (45% of base case), crypto market expansion (40%), and banknote displacement (15%).

David Cunningham of Citi Services notes the dichotomy: "Momentum is undeniable, but corporate adoption lags behind retail and algorithmic demand." The model assumes 2.5% of US bank deposits will migrate to stablecoins by decade’s end, alongside 10% of overseas USD holdings.